A major study co-ordinated by the University's Institute for International Health (IIH) predicts alarming death rates and "a monumental social, economic and health burden" from the rising incidence of diabetes in the Asia Pacific region.

The study, involving 160,000 people in China, Hong Kong, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore, confirms for the first time that the population of Asia and the Pacific is as much at risk of diabetes-related death as the populations of North America and Europe.

Significantly, the rate of diabetes is rising in Asia and the Pacific as obesity and physical inactivity increases, bringing a growing risk of death and disability, particularly from heart attacks and strokes.

Compared to people without diabetes, diabetics in the region were found to have twice the risk of death from cardiovascular disease, a 50 per cent increase in the risk of early non-cardiovascular death and a two-thirds increase in the risk of death from all causes.

The prevalence of diabetes in Australia is known to have doubled between 1980 and 2000, and the World Health Organisation predicts it will reach 300 million globally by 2025, including 136 million in the Asia Pacific region, with people in low- and middle-income countries most at risk.

Research co-author and IIH director Professor Stephen MacMahon said that unless immediate preventive action is taken, the impact of diabetes on the health of Asia-Pacific populations will be enormous.

"Diabetes is a serious health problem and a major risk factor for heart attacks and stroke throughout the region," he said. "The rapid rise in diabetes all around the Asia-Pacific region will lead to large increases in premature death and disability, which will create a monumental social, economic and health burden."

Of particular concern is the risk of diabetes-related death among younger people quantified by the study, according to institute senior research fellow and study investigator Dr Anushka Patel, who is also a Royal Prince Alfred Hospital cardiologist.

"Younger people with diabetes, aged less than 60, are four times more likely to die of cardiovascular disease than people their age without diabetes," Dr Patel said. "In Australia and in Asia and the Pacific, younger and younger people are developing diabetes."

As an indicator of the prevalence and cost of diabetes, more than a million Australians are currently estimated to have diabetes, including at least 7 per cent of people aged over 20. In the 45 to 65 age group, about one in 10 Australians is diabetic, rising to nearly one in four among people over 75. Diabetes-related health care costs in Australia are estimated at $1.2 billion a year.

The study was carried out by members of the Asia Pacific Cohort Studies Collaboration (APCSC), and co-ordinated by the IIH. It examined causes of stroke, coronary heart disease and other common causes of death in Asia-Pacific populations.

Research was conducted by 81 investigators from nine regions, including the University of Auckland in New Zealand, Academia Sinica in Taiwan, and the Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences. From Japan, Sugiyama Jogakuen University, Aichi Medical University and Shiga University took part, along with Yonsei University in South Korea.

The study was funded by the National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia and the Health Research Council of New Zealand.

Factors explored included the region, age, and sex-specific associations of blood pressure, total cholesterol, diabetes, obesity, alcohol consumption, smoking, occupation, and education with the risk of major cardiovascular disease.

"This information is essential if informed decisions about prevention and management strategies for diabetes are to be established and implemented," Dr Patel said.